As we approach the next Presidential election, it's natural to wonder how the outcome might influence various aspects of life, including the housing market. If you're thinking about buying or selling a home in Manhattan or other parts of NYC this year, you might be asking yourself how the election could affect your timing—and whether it’s still a good moment to make your move.

 

Here's some reassuring news: historically, Presidential elections have only had a small, short-term impact on the housing market. So, while it’s normal to have questions, you likely won’t need to hit pause on your plans. Here’s a closer look at the trends in home sales, prices, and mortgage rates during past election cycles, so you can feel confident in your decisions.

 

Home Sales

During the lead-up to a Presidential election, particularly from October to November, home sales typically experience a slight dip. Some buyers prefer to wait until the election is over before making such a significant decision. But the key takeaway is that this slowdown is usually temporary. Historically, the market rebounds quickly, with home sales picking up and even increasing in the year following an election.

 

This trend holds true in Manhattan as well. Data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales increased the following year. This pattern has remained consistent since the early 1990s.

 

Home Prices

You may also be wondering if home prices drop during election years. In most cases, they don’t. As housing analyst Ryan Lundquist points out:

 

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

 

Home prices in Manhattan, like other markets, generally follow a trajectory of growth over time, regardless of the election cycle. According to NAR, after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices rose the following year. The only exception was during the housing market crash of 2008, a unique situation unlikely to be repeated today. While prices may be moderating nationally, we’re not seeing significant declines.

 

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates are another factor that’s likely on your mind, especially if you’re planning to finance a home in NYC. Historically, mortgage rates have often decreased in the months leading up to a Presidential election. In 8 of the last 11 election years, data from Freddie Mac shows rates fell from July to November. 

 

This year, we’ve already seen early indications of that trend, and many experts predict mortgage rates will continue to ease throughout the rest of 2024. For prospective buyers, this could mean increased purchasing power as rates potentially drop further.

 

What This Means for You

The bottom line? While Presidential elections can have an effect on the housing market, the impact is generally minimal and temporary. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, notes:

 

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in Presidential election years compared to other years.”

 

For most Manhattan buyers and sellers, the election likely won’t have a significant influence on your plans. 

 

Final Thoughts

It’s understandable to feel uncertain during an election year, but history shows the NYC housing market remains resilient. If you're considering buying or selling property in Manhattan or elsewhere in the city, you don’t need to press pause on your goals. Let’s connect to help you navigate the market with confidence this election season.