As we approach the next Presidential election, it's natural to wonder how the outcome might influence various aspects of life, including the housing market. If you're thinking about buying or selling a home in Manhattan or other parts of NYC this year, you might be asking yourself how the election could affect your timing—and whether it’s still a good moment to make your move.

Here's some reassuring news: historically, Presidential elections have only had a small, short-term impact on the housing market. So, while it’s normal to have questions, you likely won’t need to hit pause on your plans. Here’s a closer look at the trends in home sales, prices, and mortgage rates during past election cycles, so you can feel confident in your decisions.

Home Sales

During the lead-up to a Presidential election, particularly from October to November, home sales typically experience a slight dip. Some buyers prefer to wait until the election is over before making such a significant decision. But the key takeaway is that this slowdown is usually temporary. Historically, the market rebounds quickly, with home sales picking up and even increasing in the year following an election.

This trend holds true in Manhattan as well. Data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales increased the following year. This pattern has remained consistent since the early 1990s.

Home Prices

You may also be wondering if home prices drop during election years. In most cases, they don’t. As housing analyst Ryan Lundquist points out:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

Home prices in Manhattan, like other markets, generally follow a trajectory of growth over time, regardless of the election cycle. According to NAR, after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices rose the following year. The only exception was during the housing market crash of 2008, a unique situation unlikely to be repeated today. While prices may be moderating nationally, we’re not seeing significant declines.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates are another factor that’s likely on your mind, especially if you’re planning to finance a home in NYC. Historically, mortgage rates have often decreased in the months leading up to a Presidential election. In 8 of the last 11 election years, data from Freddie Mac shows rates fell from July to November. 

This year, we’ve already seen early indications of that trend, and many experts predict mortgage rates will continue to ease throughout the rest of 2024. For prospective buyers, this could mean increased purchasing power as rates potentially drop further.

What This Means for You

The bottom line? While Presidential elections can have an effect on the housing market, the impact is generally minimal and temporary. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, notes:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in Presidential election years compared to other years.”

For most Manhattan buyers and sellers, the election likely won’t have a significant influence on your plans. 

Final Thoughts

It’s understandable to feel uncertain during an election year, but history shows the NYC housing market remains resilient. If you're considering buying or selling property in Manhattan or elsewhere in the city, you don’t need to press pause on your goals. Let’s connect to help you navigate the market with confidence this election season.

Before diving deep into your home search in a Manhattan co-op, here are 5 key considerations to consider:

1. Financials: Co-op boards in Manhattan typically have strict financial requirements. Buyers should be prepared to provide detailed documentation of their income, assets, and debt. It's important to have a strong financial profile and be able to demonstrate your ability to afford both the monthly maintenance fees and the mortgage (if you have one).

2. Board Package: The board package is a comprehensive application that buyers must submit to the co-op board for approval. It usually includes financial statements, tax returns, employment verification, personal references, and more. Buyers should work closely with their professional real estate agent like Jeff Cohen to ensure all required documents are gathered and organized properly.

3. Interview: In addition to reviewing the board package, the co-op board may require an interview with prospective buyers. This is an opportunity for the board members to ask questions and get a sense of whether you would be a good fit for the building community. Buyers should prepare by researching the building and its rules and regulations.

4. Timing: The co-op approval process in Manhattan can take several months. Buyers should be prepared for this timeline and have alternative housing arrangements in place if needed.

5. Additional Costs: In addition to the purchase price of the co-op unit, buyers should budget for additional costs such as closing costs, attorney fees, and potential renovation expenses.

It's crucial to work closely with a professional real estate agent like Jeff Cohen, who has extensive experience with buying in a Manhattan co-op. They can guide you through the process, help you navigate any challenges that may arise, and ensure you're well-prepared for each step along the way of your New York City home buying journey.

For the week of September 18th to September 24, 2023, 8 contracts were signed for $4M and above, the lowest week total since the Week of August 15^th 2022. The total dollar volume was the lowest since the $37M during the pandemic. The top apartment was listed at $7.5 Million for the Penthouse at 44 Lispenard Street. It has a rooftop terrace with breathtaking views of the city and even an outdoor kitchen. The weekly total volume amounted to just over $45 million! And this week a condo took the top spot.

If you know of anyone who is considering buying or selling their apartment in Manhattan, message me today.

Source: allaccessnyc.com, realplus, Olshan Market report

Buying an apartment in Manhattan is an excellent long-term investment. Over time, you can grow your equity in one of the world's most exciting and profitable cities.

Whether purchasing your NYC home in

cash or using a mortgage, Manhattan real estate comes at a premium. On top of the selling price, you likely want to know how much you'll spend on closing costs. Keep reading for everything you need to know about New York City closing costs.

NYC Buyer Closing Costs

Buyers should plan to spend an additional 2% to 4% above the sale price for fees and taxes. 

However, these numbers aren’t etched in stone. You can negotiate a better deal by partnering with a skilled local real estate agent and a New York real estate attorney––and in an affluent market like NYC, those deductions can make a big difference for your bottom line. Read on to discover typical buyer closing costs and strategies for paying less at the closing table.

Mansion Tax

New York City buyers must pay a real estate transfer tax called a mansion tax for properties priced at $1 million or above––and with Manhattan median home prices at $1.020M, most buyers will be hit with this tax. The mansion tax has eight brackets based on the sale price, starting at 1% for a property that costs $1 million to $1,999,999 and goes up from there. The mansion tax caps off at 3.9% for a property costing $25 million or above. 

Buyers pay the same mansion tax percentage regardless of the size of the unit, which means NYC will tax buyers the same percentage for a 400-square-foot co-op costing $1 million as a 2,000-square-foot condo sold for $1,999,999 because it falls in the same sale price tax bracket. Likewise, at the highest bracket, the percentage stays the same for a home sold for $25 million or $250 million. 

The mansion tax can significantly increase closing costs from $10,000 to $975,000. However, if you’re lucky enough to find an apartment priced below $1 million, you’ll be scot-free of the mansion tax. The table below shows the mansion tax brackets and the percentages buyers pay according to their purchase price.

NYC and New York State Transfer Taxes (for New Developments) 

If you buy a brand new co-op, townhouse, or condo directly from a sponsor or developer that costs $500,000 or higher, you must pay a NYC transfer tax of 1.425%. If the purchase price is below $500,000, the transfer tax will decrease to 1% of the purchase price. In addition, you’ll need to pay New York State a transfer tax of 0.04%. The New York State transfer tax jumps to 0.65% for new construction units sold for $3 million or more.

In some cases, buyers can negotiate with a developer or sponsor to pay a portion of the total tax. A homebuyer’s ability to do this successfully, however, depends on current market conditions and the developer’s selling goals. In a slower market with fewer buyers, some sponsors have paid buyer transfer taxes, buyer attorney fees, and other closing costs to help close a deal.

Attorney Fees

Most New York City real estate attorneys charge buyers a flat rate which buyers pay at closing. Attorney fees typically cost between $1,500 to $5,000 but can cost more for complex real estate transactions. One such transaction is combining apartments. Combining apartments can be time-consuming for an attorney because it requires submitting paperwork to condo and co-op boards, including but not limited to renovation plans and permits, and waiting for approval. Other issues that can complicate real estate transactions can include co-op sales with liquidity restrictions.

Mortgage Recording Tax (for Condos and Townhouses)

Borrowers taking out a mortgage owe additional taxes not paid by cash buyers, including New York City and New York State mortgage recording taxes. Borrowers pay a 1.8% mortgage recording tax on loans below $500,000 and a 1.925% tax on loans above $500,000. Keep in mind that a borrower pays taxes on the loan amount, not the purchase price.

Here’s an example: Say you put down a 20% downpayment ($300,000) on a condo that costs $1.5 million and finance $1.2 million. At 1.925%  you’ll pay a $23,100 mortgage recording tax. However, if you buy a home with a purchase price of $624,000 and a downpayment of $124,800, and finance the rest ($499,200) at 1.8%, the mortgage recording tax on the loan will cost $8,985.60. 

In addition to the mortgage recording tax, when taking out a mortgage, you’ll pay the following additional fees at closing:

• Appraisal Fee – $500

• Bank Attorney Fee – $1,000

• Mortgage Application & Processing Fees – $500

• Employment Verification and Credit Report – $100

• Bank Loan Origination Fee – $800

• Recognition Agreement Fee – $200 to $400

• Title Search & Recording Fees – $1,000

Title Insurance (for Condos and Townhouses)

Title insurance protects buyers and lenders against liens and title claim issues on real property from previous owners. If you’re planning on buying a condo or townhouse, you’ll need to purchase title insurance. In fact, lenders won’t finance buyers without it. The price for title insurance varies from company to company. But as a general rule, in New York City, title insurance costs around 0.45% of the purchase price.  At that rate, a condo with a purchase price of $1.5 million, will cost $6,750 for title insurance.

Co-op buyers, on the other hand, aren’t required to purchase title insurance because they don’t actually own their apartments. Instead, cooperative buyers are shareholders that own shares in the cooperative corporation based on the total value of the apartment they buy based on the floor height, views, features, and amenities.

Building Fees

Condo and co-op boards charge various building fees for new buyers. A great Manhattan real estate agent like Jeff Cohen can inform you of the cooperative board fees as well as the co-op rules for prospective buyers. The following fees are typical building fees associated with new condo or co-op sales.

• Move-in fees: Move-in fees typically cost around $1,000, however, the condo or co-op board will reimburse buyers when they move out, providing the buyer hasn’t damaged the unit.

• Co-op attorney fee: Apart from paying your own real estate attorney for the transaction, you'll pay $1,500 for the board's attorney to review sale documents.

•  Board application fee: New applicants pay an application fee to the managing agent that averages around $600. The board requires new applicants to submit several documents that the managing agent will collect and send to the board members. These documents include the income verification letter, purchase contract, bank statements, personal and professional reference letters, mortgage documents, and tax returns. 

Homeowner’s Insurance

The city of New York doesn’t mandate buyers to have a home insurance policy, but lenders, condos, and co-op boards will require you to cover your property. If you’re using a mortgage to buy your home, you must pay the first year in full when you close. For an apartment costing $1 million, coverage can range between $500 to $2,500 per year, depending on your coverage and apartment size. Check with your agent to find out more information.

How Buyers Can Save on Closing Costs

Reorganize the Deal in Your Favor

If the purchase price is a stone’s throw above the million-dollar mark, consult with your attorney to see if there’s a legitimate way to rework the deal with the seller to get the purchase price under $1 million, the threshold for the mansion tax. If you’re buying an apartment from a sponsor and the purchase price is just north of $500,000 or $3 million, the sponsor might be willing to restructure the deal so you can lower the transfer taxes, for example, paying a portion of the sponsor’s closing costs. Speak to a real estate attorney about your options.

Ask the Sponsor or Developer for a Closing Credit 

Sponsors and developers eager to sell a property fast could be open to providing a buyer with a closing credit to move the deal forward. Sometimes lowering the purchase price isn’t in the sponsor’s best interest if a lower sale price could impact offers on other units for sale. 

Apply for First-time Homebuyer Grants

 If you’re a first-time homebuyer, you could qualify for NYC and New York State grants to help decrease your closing costs. You can also apply the funds to your downpayment. The State of New York offers the following two grants to first-time home buyers.

•  New York buyers who qualify for the HomeFirst Down Payment Assistance Program can receive up to $100,000 toward the down payment or closing costs toward a co-op or condo in New York City.

• The NYSAR Housing Opportunities Foundation Grant provides New York first-time homebuyers up to $2,000 toward closing costs or the down payment for home purchases in New York’s five boroughs, including Manhattan.

Navigating NYC real estate transactions takes experience and skillful negotiation. If you’re considering buying or selling an apartment in Manhattan, message me or call (917) 719-1277 today.

Sources:

1. Mansion Global l Mansion Tax

2. A closing cost guide for buyers and sellers in NYC l Brick Underground

3. First-Time Homebuyer Programs in New York l New Home Source

4. HomeFirst Down Payment Assistance Program l NYC.gov

5. FAQs Regarding the Additional Tax on Transfers of Residential Real Property for $1 Million or More l Tax NY

For the week of February 27th to March 5th, 2023, 31 contracts were signed for $4M and above, 8 more than the previous week's count. It’s the second time we exceeded more than 30 contracts signed this year. The top apartment was listed at $14,500,000 for the 64th floor at 230 West 56th Street. It has stunning 360-degree views of the city. The weekly total volume amounted to just under $229 million! And this week a condo took the top spot.

If you know of anyone that is considering buying or selling in Manhattan, message me today.

Source: allaccessnyc.com, realplus, Olshan Market report

The New York City housing market offers buyers and sellers abundant opportunities to build wealth and enjoy a premier urban lifestyle, from Uptown to the Financial District and from the East River to the Hudson.

A global center of finance, Manhattan has historically experienced a robust economy with competitive salaries, a high-yield rental income for investors, and lucrative deals to be made by savvy entrepreneurs and business owners. Even amid cyclical market fluctuations, such as the one we’re experiencing right now, the NYC housing market has proven to be resilient and quick to recover, making investing in New York City real estate a sound long-term investment. 

With a new year comes new housing market forecasts. If you’re wondering where the NYC housing market is headed in 2023, read on for seven predictions that are already having a big impact on buyer activity and sales.

NYC Housing Market Is Expected to Return to Normal

At the end of 2022, analysts predicted that the housing market would begin to stabilize at the beginning of 2023 and “return to a long-lost normalcy” by spring, according to economists’ predictions at the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) annual Real Estate Forecast Summit. 

We’re beginning to see the forecast ring true with interest rates already declining from 7.08 % in Q4 of 2022 to a rate of 6.32% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage on February 16, 2023, according to Freddie Mac. “If inflation continues to slow and rates stabilize, that could bring more buyers back to the market and boost demand for housing,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Manhattan Luxury Housing Market Forecast – 2023

Buying luxury real estate is a wise investment because home values appreciate over time, which makes a luxury purchase a smart long-term move. There’s a lot of buyer activity, and agents are busy showing properties. Many of the empty properties on Billionaire’s Row have been purchased. As Asia lifts travel restrictions as the year progresses, more luxury contracts are expected to be signed, since Asia makes up a large majority of buyers in the ultra high-end market. 

During the week of February 13 to February 19, 2023, the city saw 31 contracts for luxury properties signed for over $4 million, according to data provided by Olshan Realty. Of those 31 properties, seven contracts exceeded $10 million, boosting weekly sales volume in Manhattan to $272 million and it was the largest weekly number of contracts signed since the 39 mark achieved in the middle of May in 2022.

Luxury properties sold by neighborhood (2/13/2023 - 2/19/2023)

Data source: Olshan

Big Demand for Luxury Properties

The appeal for luxury properties is stronger than ever. Luxury buyers, operating at the high end of the market, especially seek out homes in coveted locations. Who can resist a spacious dreamy, penthouse with floor-to-ceiling windows and an oversized terrace with stunning views, and all the amenities, venues, and services that come with luxury buildings such as rooftop decks, outdoor space, access to nearby restaurants, resident lounges, pools, and dedicated concierge and doorman services. 

Paying in Cash, Luxury Buyers Won’t Feel Interest Rate Pain

Roughly 47% of Manhattan buyers are all cash, insulating them from higher interest rates. Some international investors concern themselves with fluctuations in the stock market and foreign exchange rates rather than interest rates. Luxury buyers tend to pay for real estate in the following ways:

• Buying properties in cash if they have the capital
• Taking out a loan against their portfolio
• Liquidating stocks, commodities, or other assets 
• Using equity funds to finance the sale
• Cashing out or borrowing against real estate they own
• Using private credit

Some Sellers Will Sweeten Deals With Mortgage Rate Buydowns

If an owner is eager to sell in a market prone to high-interest rates, the seller can offer buyers a mortgage buydown, also called an interest-rate buydown. A buydown is a strategy sellers use to help close a deal when buyers, wary of high-interest rates, are on the fence about a purchase. With a buydown, rather than lowering the price or a buyer walking away, the seller agrees to pay points on a mortgage. Contrary to what you may have heard, you can do this in Manhattan and I can introduce you to my resources that can help execute this strategy.

Mortgage buydowns are also a popular trend with builders. According to Nanayakkara-Skillington, the National Association of Home Builders’ Assistant Vice President of Forecasting and Analysis, 59% of builders use incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns as well as price cuts to seal deals. Bright MLS data indicates that 40% of sellers have used buydowns and cut prices to sell properties. Let’s examine two kinds of buydowns.

Permanent Mortgage Rate Buydowns

Permanent mortgage rate buydowns can be beneficial for both buyers and sellers. For example, a seller lists a condo for $400,000. The buyer offers a price of $380,000. By the seller offering an interest rate buydown, the buyer will receive $20,000 savings over the life of the loan. 

Here’s how it works: The seller will pay two percentage points on the buyer’s mortgage which will cost the seller a total of $8,000. In return, the buyer will receive a reduced monthly interest rate of $0.5%. Because interest compounds over time, the buyer will save nearly $20,000 by the end of the loan term and the seller will only need to contribute $8,000 rather than cutting $20,000 off the asking price. Everyone wins.

Temporary Mortgage Rate Buydowns

Another buydown both parties can agree to is a temporary mortgage buydown, also called a  temporary interest rate buydown. The seller pays a couple of percentage points on the interest out of the sale proceeds. This lowers the interest rate on the loan for the buyer for the first three years. 

Temporary buydowns don’t save buyers money over the life of a loan, but they can provide relief for buyers who expect to earn higher income in a few years or anticipate refinancing when rates get lower, while also helping owners sell a home more quickly. One type of temporary buydown you can do is a 3-2-1 buydown. Here’s how it works:

• The seller pays the interest rate to the lender at closing.
• The buyer‘s monthly interest rate is reduced by 3% in the first year. 
• The buyer’s interest rate is lowered by 2% during the second year.
• The buyer’s interest rate is lowered by 1% during the third year.

Office-to-Residential Conversions Could Ease Housing Shortage

Ongoing strong demand has meant that New York City has experienced a housing shortage in the past few years, helping to drive up the value of NYC real estate. While the city has issued 59,000 permits to developers for affordable new housing, they will take time to complete. Developers in Manhattan have gotten creative and, thanks to the rise of remote and hybrid work, are now dipping their toes into office-to-residential conversions.

One example project can be found in a landmark building at One Wall Street, an Art Deco office tower that now provides Manhattan with 566 new luxury condos. The property is one of many conversions slated for 2023. As more permits gain approval and offices are converted to residential specifications, the housing market will increase its inventory supply. 

Migration of New Residents Will Continue to Increase  

More people are once again moving into Manhattan, with Bloomberg heralding the borough’s comeback. As more businesses reopened, wage growth spiked to the highest rate in 20 years, and more people returned to the office, even on a part-time basis, fewer people migrated out of Manhattan and many returned.

People are moving in from other metropolitan areas and some New Yorkers who left for the suburbs during the pandemic are back, motivated by suburban housing increases and the desire for Manhattan’s vibrant, walkable, and convenient urban lifestyle, and abundant amenities such as restaurants, world-class museums, broadway shows, art galleries, nightlife, entertainment, and shopping.

Source: Melissa, OMB published on Bloomberg.com

More Renters Are Considering Homeownership

In December 2022, tenants saw lease renewals soar by 40% to 50%. The average rental price spiked to $5,243, an increase of 18.1% over the previous year. This was great news for real estate investors, who saw record-breaking rental yields.

However, tenants who were ready for a long-term commitment and could swing the down payment started looking for properties to make the jump into homeownership and build equity. While some people relocated to boroughs such as Queens and Brooklyn — or out of New York City entirely — 73% of aspiring New York City home buyers searched for properties in Manhattan, according to real estate search data.

Is New York City in a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?

As the Manhattan real estate market continues to shift, an important question on top of everyone’s mind is this: “Are we in a buyer’s or a seller’s market?” In 2021 and the first half of 2022, the entire United States, which included Manhattan, experienced a red-hot seller’s market. However, now we’ve transitioned from an unprecedented seller’s market to a market that favors buyers. Currently, in New York City, buyers have the edge, especially cash buyers, who make up roughly 50% of buyers in the market. 

It’s also important to note that the New York City housing market isn’t as “cool” as we’ve heard in the news. Yes, sales might be down from the pandemic-buying frenzy that produced a record-breaking number of contracts signed. However, sales in Manhattan are 44% higher now than they were before the pandemic, according to Jonathan Miller, President and CEO of Miller Samuel.

This fast-moving market comes with lots of variabilities, says Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant. “This means both buyers and sellers might need to reset expectations for a successful sale. 

New York City is a dynamic and exciting environment, and the NYC housing market is no exception. If you’re looking to buy or sell, and need a seasoned Manhattan real estate professional to help you navigate a complex and rewarding housing market, message me or call (917) 719-1277 today.

Sources:

1. Luxury Outlook Report l Sotheby's
2. Seller buydowns can help home sellers struggling to find buyers in a restrictive financial environment l Business Insider
3. Mortgage Buydowns Are Making a Comeback l The Wall St. Journal  
4. On The Horizon: Markets to Watch in 2023 and Beyond l NAR
5. More People Are Moving to Manhattan Than Before the Pandemic l Bloomberg
6. A Turtle Bay Townhouse With Wall-To-Wall Windows l Curbed
7. Olshan Luxury Market Report l Olshan
8. Mortgage Rate Predictions So Far Are Bearing Out l NAR
9. Compound Interest Calculator l Business Insider
10. The Evolution of a Masterpiece l One Wall Street
11. A Housing Market Hangover l New York Times
12. Is now a good time to invest in Manhattan, New York residential property? l Castle Avenue 
13. Making sense of the NYC real estate market with Jonathan Miller

Are we on the highway to the buy zone? It appears that we are in the buy zone and on our way out. Here is why.   The chart here is called a market pulse. It's a metric we use to determine whether or not it's a buyers’ market or seller’s market as you can see from the anatomy of the buy zone back in 2020 we had the highway to the buy zone, then entered into phase one right near the bottom, phase two is the flatlining, and phase three is when it goes on its way out to neutral territory or even a seller’s market. In 2022 as interest rates started to rise we saw another highway to the buyer zone with a downward trending line towards the end of 2022 where we hit phase one of the buyer zone. In 2023 it feels like we've hit phase two and that's because a lot of our listings are starting to go into contract and from all the agents that we talk to it appears that the buyer activity is really picking up. This leads us to believe we're heading into phase three, on our way out of the buy zone so if you've had any thoughts about buying in Manhattan message me today!  Watch the video below for more detail on whether or not you should buy an apartment in NYC in 2023

Is the Housing Market Correcting?

If you're following the news, all of the headlines about conditions in the current housing market may leave you with more questions than answers. Is the boom over? Is the market crashing or correcting? Here’s what you need to know.

The housing market is moderating compared to the last two years, but what everyone needs to remember is that the past two years were record-breaking in nearly every way. Record-low mortgage rates and millennials reaching peak homebuying years led to an influx of buyer demand. At the same time, there weren’t enough homes available to purchase thanks to many years of underbuilding and sellers who held off on listing their homes due to the health crisis.

Why Rising Mortgage Rates Push Buyers off the Fence

Manhattan Residential Listings over $4 Million

Contracts Signed

Week of April 5th - April 11th, 2021

In the Manhattan Luxury Market, which we refer to as $4 Million and above we had Fifty One (51) contracts that were signed last week. That is a total volume of $455 million, an average of $8.9 million and a median price of $8 million.

The top sale of the week went to 151 East 58th Street PH5152W known as the Beacon which was last asking $29.5 million features 24-foot double-height ceiling in the living room, 2,00 square foot master suite, and sick views through about 400 linear feet of 12-foot-high windows. The sale price is not yet known but appears to be roughly a 74% discount from the original asking price of $115 million back in April of 2013.  Billionaire Uncle Steve Cohen (not my uncle) but owner of the Amazing New York Mets is rumored to be the owner.

Now we can contemplate what apartment Francisco Lindor might buy now that he will be in NY for a long time to come.

Lets Go Mets #LGM

Jeff Cohen

Licensed Real Estate Salesperson

NextStopNY Real Estate