SCROLL DOWN for latest openings, local events, market trends and real estate updates.

 

June 14, 2022

Is the Housing Market Correcting?

Is the Housing Market Correcting?

Jeff Cohen Is the Housing Market Correcting

If you're following the news, all of the headlines about conditions in the current housing market may leave you with more questions than answers. Is the boom over? Is the market crashing or correcting? Here’s what you need to know.

The housing market is moderating compared to the last two years, but what everyone needs to remember is that the past two years were record-breaking in nearly every way. Record-low mortgage rates and millennials reaching peak homebuying years led to an influx of buyer demand. At the same time, there weren’t enough homes available to purchase thanks to many years of underbuilding and sellers who held off on listing their homes due to the health crisis.

This combination led to record-high demand and record-low supply, and that wasn’t going to be sustainable for the long term. The latest data shows early signs of a shift back to the market pace seen in the years leading up to the pandemic – not a crash nor a correction. As realtor.com says:

The housing market is at a turning point. . . . We’re starting to see signs of a new direction, . . .”

Home Showings Then and Now

The ShowingTime Showing Index tracks the traffic of home showings according to agents and brokers. It’s a good indication of buyer demand. Here’s a look at that data going back to 2019 (see graph below):

Is the Housing Market Correcting? | MyKCM

The 2019 numbers give a good baseline of pre-pandemic demand (shown in gray). As the graph indicates, home showings skyrocketed during the pandemic (shown in blue). And while current buyer demand has begun to moderate slightly based on the latest data (shown in green), showings are still above 2019 levels.

And since 2019 was such a strong year for the housing market, this helps show that the market isn’t crashing – it’s just at a turning point that’s moving back toward more pre-pandemic levels.

Existing Home Sales Then and Now

Headlines are also talking about how existing home sales are declining, but perspective matters. Here’s a look at existing home sales going all the way back to 2019 using data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) (see graph below):

Is the Housing Market Correcting? | MyKCM

Again, a similar story emerges. The pandemic numbers (shown in blue) beat the more typical year of 2019 home sales (shown in gray). And according to the latest projections for 2022 (shown in green), the market is on pace to close this year with more home sales than 2019 as well.

It’s important to compare today not to the abnormal pandemic years, but to the most recent normal year to show the current housing market is still strong. First American sums it up like this:

“. . . today’s housing market looks a lot like the 2019 housing market, which was the strongest housing market in a decade at the time.”

Bottom Line

If recent headlines are generating any concerns, look at a more typical year for perspective. The current market is not a crash or correction. It’s just a turning point toward more typical, pre-pandemic levels. Let’s connect if you have any questions about the New York City or Manhattan real estate market and what it means for you when you buy or sell apartment this year.

Posted in Real Estate
June 14, 2022

Why Rising Mortgage Rates Push Buyers off the Fence

Why Rising Mortgage Rates Push Buyers off the Fence

Why Rising Mortgage Rates Push Buyers off the Fence | MyKCM

If you’re thinking about buying a home, you’ve probably heard mortgage rates are rising and have wondered what that means for you. Since mortgage rates have increased over two percentage points this year, it’s natural to think about how this will impact your homeownership plans.

Today, buyers are reacting in one of two ways: they’re either making the decision to buy now before rates climb higher or they’re waiting it out in hopes rates will fall. Let’s look at some context that can help you understand why so many buyers are jumping off the fence and into action rather than waiting to buy.

A Look Back: How the Current Mortgage Rate Compares to Historical Data

One factor that could help you make your decision to buy now is how today’s mortgage rates compare to historical data. While higher than the average 30-year fixed rate in recent years, the latest rates are still comparatively low when you look at the bigger picture of where rates have been since 1971 (see graph below):

Why Rising Mortgage Rates Push Buyers off the Fence | MyKCM

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First Americanexplains it like this:

“. . . historical context is important. An average 30-year, fixed mortgage rate of 5.5 percent is still well below the historical average of nearly 8 percent.”

If you’re deciding whether to buy now or wait, this is important context to have. Today’s mortgage rate still gives you a window of opportunity to lock in a rate that’s comparatively lower than decades past.

A Look Ahead: What Happens if Rates Climb Further

The buyers who are springing into action now are also motivated to make their move because they know rates have risen steadily this year, and they’re eager to get ahead of any further increases.

Why? When mortgage rates climb, they impact the monthly mortgage payment you’ll have on the home you’re buying. Basically, it’ll likely cost you more to buy a home if you wait. Experts say mortgage rates will rise (although more moderately) in the months ahead. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First Americanexplains:

“. . . ongoing inflationary pressure remains likely to push mortgage rates even higher in the months to come.”

So, if you’re ready and financially able to buy now, it may make more sense to get off the fence and make your purchase sooner rather than later. As Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

With even higher interest rates on the horizon, I don’t see any reason to hold off from purchasing a home right now. If you feel financially secure, you should start looking for a home.”

At the end of the day, there is no perfect advice on when to buy a home. What you should do depends on your goals, your finances, and your personal situation. Use this information with the help of local real estate professionals to make an informed decision on what’s best for you. The Mortgage Reports sums it up best:

“. . . if you’re on the fence about whether to buy now or wait for a better deal, buying sooner rather than later might be wise. That said, home buying is always a personal decision. Whether you should buy in 2022 depends on your financial situation and the local housing market where you live.”

Bottom Line

For many buyers, rising mortgage rates are motivating them to act now and make a purchase before rates rise higher. To decide what move is best for you, let’s connect so you have expert advice on your side  If you have any questions about buying or selling in New York City, call or message me today and I would be happy to answer any questions you might have.

Posted in Real Estate
April 14, 2021

Luxury Manhattan Market Report

Manhattan Residential Listings over $4 Million

Contracts Signed

Week of April 5th - April 11th, 2021

In the Manhattan Luxury Market, which we refer to as $4 Million and above we had Fifty One (51) contracts that were signed last week. That is a total volume of $455 million, an average of $8.9 million and a median price of $8 million.

The top sale of the week went to 151 East 58th Street PH5152W known as the Beacon which was last asking $29.5 million features 24-foot double-height ceiling in the living room, 2,00 square foot master suite, and sick views through about 400 linear feet of 12-foot-high windows. The sale price is not yet known but appears to be roughly a 74% discount from the original asking price of $115 million back in April of 2013.  Billionaire Uncle Steve Cohen (not my uncle) but owner of the Amazing New York Mets is rumored to be the owner.

Now we can contemplate what apartment Francisco Lindor might buy now that he will be in NY for a long time to come.

Lets Go Mets #LGM

Jeff Cohen

Licensed Real Estate Salesperson

NextStopNY Real Estate

March 5, 2021

414 East 52nd Street

Stunning, spacious and sun-filled. This completely renovated over-sized one bedroom apartment has yet to be lived in post renovation. It is nestled in a pre-war building on a quiet 52nd Street cul de sac! The sunny southern exposure faces an internal private garden and brightens this space all afternoon.

Youtube tour: 414 East 52nd Street Apartment 8F

Features include Dryer in the unit (Miele), Working Wood-Burning Fireplace, 3 large closets including a Walk-In Pantry Closet, Central Air-Conditioning. State-of-the art stainless steel appliances – American Range, Dacor convection microwave, Bosch dishwasher and Bosch refrigerator (with bottom freezer). Just to highlight how exquisite the finishes are, the kitchen is even lined with beautiful Xtone counters. Perfect for a Chef and Cooking/Baking Aficionado! In addition, the soaking tub in the bathroom provides a rain shower with hand-held spray and a seamless glass enclosure. Best of all…. electricity is included.

The building provides 24-hour doorman service and personal assistance, mail and package delivery, a laundry room, bike room, optional storage, pretty lobby, and access to the private garden. Close to all transportation, shops, parks and restaurants. Please call for an appointment.

Pets Allowed

 

 

 

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~

Jeff Cohen

https://www.jcny.com/

NextStopNY Real Estate

1033 Second Ave (at 54th Street) 

New York, NY 10022 

Phone: 917-719-1277

Email: Jeff@nextstopny.com 

Licensed Real Estate Salesperson

Instagram:  https://www.instagram.com/thecohenation/

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/jcnyrealestate

Posted in Real Estate
May 9, 2020

Support Local: Ess-a-Bagel

Start "spreading" the news about this interview. Join me as I sit down with Melanie one of the owners of Ess-a-Bagel in Manhattan. The gift card #giveaway is at the bottom, but more important is the story.

NYC is one of the hardest hit areas by #covid19 and I thought it would be great idea to highlight local businesses in #mymidtowneast who are staying open, safe and feeding our community. When you think of #nyc , you think of bagels. Ess-a-Bagel is one of the most iconic bagel shops and they even ship around the country. Not only do they remain open, but they are committed to helping front line workers and recently initiated a grocery option for the community to get some of those hard to access items.

If you are interested in feeding the front line workers, Melanie recommends donating here:

https://www.gofundme.com/f/feed-the-frontline-workers-of-nyc

To find out more about #essabagel and how you can order, follow, and become a fan like me:

https://www.ess-a-bagel.com/

https://www.facebook.com/EssABagel1976/

https://www.instagram.com/essabagel/

 

To find more about the gift card, go to my instagram at:

https://www.instagram.com/thecohenation/

 

April 29, 2020

What to expect from real estate after the pandemic

Think This Is a Housing Crisis? Here are five aspects to consider...

Think This Is a Housing Crisis? Think Again. | MyKCM

There is so much uncertainty caused by the pandemic and the economic pain we are encountering across the country persists. Until the number of listings normalizes, we have access to apartments, can provide access to buyers, and see how historic unemployment factors in, it is difficult to determine what will happen to home values. I am hearing from a lot of clients asking me if the housing market is in trouble. While nobody knows for sure based on these factors, there is a lot of talk about how this market will compare to 2008. For those who were around in 2008, it's understandable that one would ask that question. However, the best real estate decision I ever made was during that time of uncertainty. So, it got me thinking, what is different?

At that time, a lot of us experienced financial hardships, lost homes, and were out of work during that "Great Recession". However, that recession was ignited by a housing and mortgage crisis. Today, we face a completely different challenge: an external health crisis that has caused a pause in much of the economy and a major shutdown of many parts of the United States.

Let’s look at 5 things we know about today’s housing market that were different in 2008. In case you are used to scrolling on Instagram like I am, I have also included a few infographics to support the narrative.

1. Appreciation

When we look at the increase in home prices in the image below, there is a significant difference between the six years prior to the housing crash and the most recent six-year period of time. Leading up to the crash, we had much higher appreciation in this country than we see today. In fact, the highest level of appreciation most recently is below the lowest level we saw leading up to the crash. Prices have been rising lately, but not at the rate they were climbing back when we had runaway appreciation.Think This Is a Housing Crisis? Think Again. | MyKCM

2. Mortgage Credit

The Mortgage Credit Availability Index is a monthly measure by the Mortgage Bankers Association that gauges the level of difficulty to secure a loan. The higher the index, the easier it is to get a loan; the lower the index, the harder. Today we’re nowhere near the levels seen before the housing crash when it was very easy to get approved for a mortgage. After the crash, however, lending standards tightened and have remained that way leading up to today.Think This Is a Housing Crisis? Think Again. | MyKCM

3. Number of Homes for Sale

One of the causes of the housing crash in 2008 was an oversupply of homes for sale. Today, as shown in the next image, we see a much different picture. We don’t have enough homes on the market for the number of people who want to buy them. Across the country, we have less than 6 months of inventory, an undersupply of homes available for interested buyers. Manhattan has experienced an oversupply in recent years mostly driven by New Development, but prior to COVID-19, we were seeing postive signs of activity.Think This Is a Housing Crisis? Think Again. | MyKCM

4. Use of Home Equity

The comparative in this section shows the difference in how people are accessing the equity in their homes today as compared to 2008. In 2008, consumers were extracting equity from their homes (through cash-out refinances) and generally speaking people were utilizing the surplus to fund their lifestyles. Today, we are seeing home owners treating the equity in their homes much more cautiously.Think This Is a Housing Crisis? Think Again. | MyKCM

5. Home Equity Today

For those that like to analyze numbers, today, 53.8% of homes across the country have at least 50% equity. In 2008, homeowners were abandoning their homes when they were "underwater" (meaning owed more than what their homes were worth). With the equity homeowners have now, they’re much less likely to walk away from their homes.Think This Is a Housing Crisis? Think Again. | MyKCM

Bottom Line

The COVID-19 crisis is causing different challenges across the country than the ones we faced in 2008. Back then, we had a housing crisis; today, we face a health crisis. What we know now is that housing is in a much stronger position today than it was in 2008. It is no longer the center of the economic slowdown. Rather, it could be just what helps pull us out of the downturn.

We all know that NYC is completely different from most of the country. If you are interested in seeing detailed information on the how the pandemic will impact the housing market in Manhattan contact me.

Feb. 13, 2020

Alexa says what? $165M?

According to the New York Times, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos purchased the Warner Estate in Beverly Hills from David Geffen for $165 million. The 9.4 acre parcel was designed in the 1930s for Jack Warner, the a force in the entertainment industry and is best known as the former president of Warner Brothers Entertainment. Geffen purchased the residence for $47.5 million in 1990, which was a record for L.A. County at the time.

Bezos’s $165 million purchase, which was not an online order, is a new record for L.A. County and likely for the entire state of California. Alexa, can you say impressive!

 

March 31, 2019

Debt To Income Ratio

My name is Jeff Cohen and I'm a real estate Salesperson in New York City with NextStopNY. Manhattan is a different real estate market when compared to the rest of the country.  So I decided to create a real estate series dedicated to answering some of the top questions I receive from buyers when shopping for a home in New York City (NYC). 

In this episode I will go over what is called the debt to income ratio or what some people also call the debt to equity ratio. What is important to know is that a bank may have a different ratio requirement than a co-op board and most often the co-op board has a a more strict threshold. When buying a co-op in New York City, co-op boards usually want to see the buyer landing somewhere between a 25 to 35 percent debt-to-income ratio, and quite frequently below 30 percent. 

Debt-to-income ratio is a measure of what percentage of your income goes towards housing expenses, more specifically mortgage and maintenance, but can also extend to areas such as other debts. This formula is calculated by taking your monthly expense divided by your monthly income.  

As an example if you are buying a 1 bedroom apartment for $700,000 with 20% down, your mortgage could be about $2,800. If you add to that a hypothetical maintenance of let's say $1,200, your total monthly expense is $4,000. Then let's assume you make $165,000 per year gross salary (not after-tax). $165,000 divided by 12 months is about $13,750 per month in income. So in this example you would take $4,000/$13,750 and come up with a debt to income ratio of 29%.

DTIR

Evidence from studies of mortgage loans suggest that borrowers with a higher debt-to-income ratio are more likely to run into trouble making monthly payments. So the lower the debt to income ratio the better. 

When you are looking to buy an apartment in New York City be aware of the debt to income ratio. Either ask your real estate agent what the debt to income ratio is or have them ask the management company of the building if they don't know.

This is Jeff Cohen a real estate agent in Manhattan with NextStopNY. I hope you enjoyed this episode and look forward to seeing you again soon.

Feb. 28, 2019

Manhhattan Real Estate Market Update January 2019

This your Manhattan Real Estate Market update for February 11th 2019.

Buying or Selling an apartment in New York City right now? Don't miss this real estate market update. The new metric called the Market Pulse is explained and you will want to listen in to see why that could benefit you. Then as an added bonus if you scroll down I provide more insight into the Market Pulse.

 

 

The Market Pulse in Manhattan is calculated by taking pending sales and dividing it by active inventory. In English it means comparing how many apartments currently have signed contracts to sell, versus what apartments are currently on the market trying to sell.  You can see from the chart below that in the Fall of 2013 it almost approached 1, but since 2016 it has been on a steady decline. 

Market Pulse

Call, text or email me to find out how I can save you money right now. 

 

Jan. 23, 2019

$238 Million Home: Record Pulverized

WKen Griffinhile we are all waiting for the next episode of Billions, the real life Bobby Axelrod is at work hoarding properties around the world.  Citadel Hedge Fund founder Ken Griffin is reported to be the new owner of this ~24,000 square foot apartment at 220 Central Park South. The price tag for this beauty is said to be around $238 Million.  This is a record price for a home in the United States and it pulverized the price $100.5 million apartment that Michael Dell paid at 157 West 57th.  What is even more shocking is that it is actually cheap when compared to the 2 paintings he purchased back in 2016 for $500 million.

The architect for 220 Central park South is Robert A.M. Stern and the property is developed by Vornado Realty Trust.

Looking for an apartment in Manhattan? Learn more about Jeff Cohen and how he can help you find the home of your dreams.