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March 10, 2023

Manhattan Luxury Real Estate Market Update March 5, 2023

For the week of February 27th to March 5th, 2023, 31 contracts were signed for $4M and above, 8 more than the previous week's count. It’s the second time we exceeded more than 30 contracts signed this year. The top apartment was listed at $14,500,000 for the 64th floor at 230 West 56th Street. It has stunning 360-degree views of the city. The weekly total volume amounted to just under $229 million! And this week a condo took the top spot.

If you know of anyone that is considering buying or selling in Manhattan, message me today.

Source:, realplus, Olshan Market report

Feb. 23, 2023

NYC Housing Market: 2023 Predictions, Outlook, and Trends

The New York City housing market offers buyers and sellers abundant opportunities to build wealth and enjoy a premier urban lifestyle, from Uptown to the Financial District and from the East River to the Hudson.


A global center of finance, Manhattan has historically experienced a robust economy with competitive salaries, a high-yield rental income for investors, and lucrative deals to be made by savvy entrepreneurs and business owners. Even amid cyclical market fluctuations, such as the one we’re experiencing right now, the NYC housing market has proven to be resilient and quick to recover, making investing in New York City real estate a sound long-term investment. 


With a new year comes new housing market forecasts. If you’re wondering where the NYC housing market is headed in 2023, read on for seven predictions that are already having a big impact on buyer activity and sales.

NYC Housing Market Is Expected to Return to Normal

At the end of 2022, analysts predicted that the housing market would begin to stabilize at the beginning of 2023 and “return to a long-lost normalcy” by spring, according to economists’ predictions at the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) annual Real Estate Forecast Summit. 


We’re beginning to see the forecast ring true with interest rates already declining from 7.08 % in Q4 of 2022 to a rate of 6.32% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage on February 16, 2023, according to Freddie Mac. “If inflation continues to slow and rates stabilize, that could bring more buyers back to the market and boost demand for housing,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Manhattan Luxury Housing Market Forecast – 2023

Buying luxury real estate is a wise investment because home values appreciate over time, which makes a luxury purchase a smart long-term move. There’s a lot of buyer activity, and agents are busy showing properties. Many of the empty properties on Billionaire’s Row have been purchased. As Asia lifts travel restrictions as the year progresses, more luxury contracts are expected to be signed, since Asia makes up a large majority of buyers in the ultra high-end market. 


During the week of February 13 to February 19, 2023, the city saw 31 contracts for luxury properties signed for over $4 million, according to data provided by Olshan Realty. Of those 31 properties, seven contracts exceeded $10 million, boosting weekly sales volume in Manhattan to $272 million and it was the largest weekly number of contracts signed since the 39 mark achieved in the middle of May in 2022.

Luxury properties sold by neighborhood (2/13/2023 - 2/19/2023)
















$2,758 PSF 2,897 sq. ft.













$0 PSF

0 sq. ft. 







$3,654 PSF 3,206 sq. ft.

Data source: Olshan

Big Demand for Luxury Properties

The appeal for luxury properties is stronger than ever. Luxury buyers, operating at the high end of the market, especially seek out homes in coveted locations. Who can resist a spacious dreamy, penthouse with floor-to-ceiling windows and an oversized terrace with stunning views, and all the amenities, venues, and services that come with luxury buildings such as rooftop decks, outdoor space, access to nearby restaurants, resident lounges, pools, and dedicated concierge and doorman services. 

Paying in Cash, Luxury Buyers Won’t Feel Interest Rate Pain

Roughly 47% of Manhattan buyers are all cash, insulating them from higher interest rates. Some international investors concern themselves with fluctuations in the stock market and foreign exchange rates rather than interest rates. Luxury buyers tend to pay for real estate in the following ways:


  • Buying properties in cash if they have the capital
  • Taking out a loan against their portfolio
  • Liquidating stocks, commodities, or other assets 
  • Using equity funds to finance the sale
  • Cashing out or borrowing against real estate they own
  • Using private credit

Some Sellers Will Sweeten Deals With Mortgage Rate Buydowns

If an owner is eager to sell in a market prone to high-interest rates, the seller can offer buyers a mortgage buydown, also called an interest-rate buydown. A buydown is a strategy sellers use to help close a deal when buyers, wary of high-interest rates, are on the fence about a purchase. With a buydown, rather than lowering the price or a buyer walking away, the seller agrees to pay points on a mortgage. Contrary to what you may have heard, you can do this in Manhattan and I can introduce you to my resources that can help execute this strategy.


Mortgage buydowns are also a popular trend with builders. According to Nanayakkara-Skillington, the National Association of Home Builders’ Assistant Vice President of Forecasting and Analysis, 59% of builders use incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns as well as price cuts to seal deals. Bright MLS data indicates that 40% of sellers have used buydowns and cut prices to sell properties. Let’s examine two kinds of buydowns.

Permanent Mortgage Rate Buydowns

Permanent mortgage rate buydowns can be beneficial for both buyers and sellers. For example, a seller lists a condo for $400,000. The buyer offers a price of $380,000. By the seller offering an interest rate buydown, the buyer will receive $20,000 savings over the life of the loan. 


Here’s how it works: The seller will pay two percentage points on the buyer’s mortgage which will cost the seller a total of $8,000. In return, the buyer will receive a reduced monthly interest rate of $0.5%. Because interest compounds over time, the buyer will save nearly $20,000 by the end of the loan term and the seller will only need to contribute $8,000 rather than cutting $20,000 off the asking price. Everyone wins.

Temporary Mortgage Rate Buydowns

Another buydown both parties can agree to is a temporary mortgage buydown, also called a  temporary interest rate buydown. The seller pays a couple of percentage points on the interest out of the sale proceeds. This lowers the interest rate on the loan for the buyer for the first three years. 


Temporary buydowns don’t save buyers money over the life of a loan, but they can provide relief for buyers who expect to earn higher income in a few years or anticipate refinancing when rates get lower, while also helping owners sell a home more quickly. One type of temporary buydown you can do is a 3-2-1 buydown. Here’s how it works:


  • The seller pays the interest rate to the lender at closing.
  • The buyer‘s monthly interest rate is reduced by 3% in the first year. 
  • The buyer’s interest rate is lowered by 2% during the second year.
  • The buyer’s interest rate is lowered by 1% during the third year.

Office-to-Residential Conversions Could Ease Housing Shortage

Ongoing strong demand has meant that New York City has experienced a housing shortage in the past few years, helping to drive up the value of NYC real estate. While the city has issued 59,000 permits to developers for affordable new housing, they will take time to complete. Developers in Manhattan have gotten creative and, thanks to the rise of remote and hybrid work, are now dipping their toes into office-to-residential conversions.


One example project can be found in a landmark building at One Wall Street, an Art Deco office tower that now provides Manhattan with 566 new luxury condos. The property is one of many conversions slated for 2023. As more permits gain approval and offices are converted to residential specifications, the housing market will increase its inventory supply. 

Migration of New Residents Will Continue to Increase  

More people are once again moving into Manhattan, with Bloomberg heralding the borough’s comeback. As more businesses reopened, wage growth spiked to the highest rate in 20 years, and more people returned to the office, even on a part-time basis, fewer people migrated out of Manhattan and many returned.


People are moving in from other metropolitan areas and some New Yorkers who left for the suburbs during the pandemic are back, motivated by suburban housing increases and the desire for Manhattan’s vibrant, walkable, and convenient urban lifestyle, and abundant amenities such as restaurants, world-class museums, broadway shows, art galleries, nightlife, entertainment, and shopping.


Source: Melissa, OMB published on

More Renters Are Considering Homeownership

In December 2022, tenants saw lease renewals soar by 40% to 50%. The average rental price spiked to $5,243, an increase of 18.1% over the previous year. This was great news for real estate investors, who saw record-breaking rental yields.


However, tenants who were ready for a long-term commitment and could swing the down payment started looking for properties to make the jump into homeownership and build equity. While some people relocated to boroughs such as Queens and Brooklyn — or out of New York City entirely — 73% of aspiring New York City home buyers searched for properties in Manhattan, according to real estate search data.

Is New York City in a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?

As the Manhattan real estate market continues to shift, an important question on top of everyone’s mind is this: “Are we in a buyer’s or a seller’s market?” In 2021 and the first half of 2022, the entire United States, which included Manhattan, experienced a red-hot seller’s market. However, now we’ve transitioned from an unprecedented seller’s market to a market that favors buyers. Currently, in New York City, buyers have the edge, especially cash buyers, who make up roughly 50% of buyers in the market. 


It’s also important to note that the New York City housing market isn’t as “cool” as we’ve heard in the news. Yes, sales might be down from the pandemic-buying frenzy that produced a record-breaking number of contracts signed. However, sales in Manhattan are 44% higher now than they were before the pandemic, according to Jonathan Miller, President and CEO of Miller Samuel.


This fast-moving market comes with lots of variabilities, says Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant. “This means both buyers and sellers might need to reset expectations for a successful sale. 


New York City is a dynamic and exciting environment, and the NYC housing market is no exception. If you’re looking to buy or sell, and need a seasoned Manhattan real estate professional to help you navigate a complex and rewarding housing market, message me or call (917) 719-1277 today.




  1. Luxury Outlook Report l Sotheby's
  2. Seller buydowns can help home sellers struggling to find buyers in a restrictive financial environment l Business Insider
  3. Mortgage Buydowns Are Making a Comeback l The Wall St. Journal  
  4. On The Horizon: Markets to Watch in 2023 and Beyond l NAR
  5. More People Are Moving to Manhattan Than Before the Pandemic l Bloomberg
  6. A Turtle Bay Townhouse With Wall-To-Wall Windows l Curbed
  7. Olshan Luxury Market Report l Olshan
  8. Mortgage Rate Predictions So Far Are Bearing Out l NAR
  9. Compound Interest Calculator l Business Insider
  10. The Evolution of a Masterpiece l One Wall Street
  11. A Housing Market Hangover l New York Times
  12. Is now a good time to invest in Manhattan, New York residential property? l Castle Avenue 
  13. Making sense of the NYC real estate market with Jonathan Miller
Jan. 30, 2023

Highway to the buyer zone

Are we on the highway to the buy zone? It appears that we are in the buy zone and on our way out. Here is why.   The chart here is called a market pulse. It's a metric we use to determine whether or not it's a buyers’ market or seller’s market as you can see from the anatomy of the buy zone Market Pulseback in 2020 we had the highway to the buy zone, then entered into phase one right near the bottom, phase two is the flatlining, and phase three is when it goes on its way out to neutral territory or even a seller’s market. In 2022 as interest rates started to rise we saw another highway to the buyer zone with a downward trending line towards the end of 2022 where we hit phase one of the buyer zone. In 2023 it feels like we've hit phase two and that's because a lot of our listings are starting to go into contract and from all the agents that we talk to it appears that the buyer activity is really picking up. This leads us to believe we're heading into phase three, on our way out of the buy zone so if you've had any thoughts about buying in Manhattan message me today!  Watch the video below for more detail on whether or not you should buy an apartment in NYC in 2023


June 14, 2022

Is the Housing Market Correcting?

Is the Housing Market Correcting?

Jeff Cohen Is the Housing Market Correcting

If you're following the news, all of the headlines about conditions in the current housing market may leave you with more questions than answers. Is the boom over? Is the market crashing or correcting? Here’s what you need to know.

The housing market is moderating compared to the last two years, but what everyone needs to remember is that the past two years were record-breaking in nearly every way. Record-low mortgage rates and millennials reaching peak homebuying years led to an influx of buyer demand. At the same time, there weren’t enough homes available to purchase thanks to many years of underbuilding and sellers who held off on listing their homes due to the health crisis.

This combination led to record-high demand and record-low supply, and that wasn’t going to be sustainable for the long term. The latest data shows early signs of a shift back to the market pace seen in the years leading up to the pandemic – not a crash nor a correction. As says:

The housing market is at a turning point. . . . We’re starting to see signs of a new direction, . . .”

Home Showings Then and Now

The ShowingTime Showing Index tracks the traffic of home showings according to agents and brokers. It’s a good indication of buyer demand. Here’s a look at that data going back to 2019 (see graph below):

Is the Housing Market Correcting? | MyKCM

The 2019 numbers give a good baseline of pre-pandemic demand (shown in gray). As the graph indicates, home showings skyrocketed during the pandemic (shown in blue). And while current buyer demand has begun to moderate slightly based on the latest data (shown in green), showings are still above 2019 levels.

And since 2019 was such a strong year for the housing market, this helps show that the market isn’t crashing – it’s just at a turning point that’s moving back toward more pre-pandemic levels.

Existing Home Sales Then and Now

Headlines are also talking about how existing home sales are declining, but perspective matters. Here’s a look at existing home sales going all the way back to 2019 using data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) (see graph below):

Is the Housing Market Correcting? | MyKCM

Again, a similar story emerges. The pandemic numbers (shown in blue) beat the more typical year of 2019 home sales (shown in gray). And according to the latest projections for 2022 (shown in green), the market is on pace to close this year with more home sales than 2019 as well.

It’s important to compare today not to the abnormal pandemic years, but to the most recent normal year to show the current housing market is still strong. First American sums it up like this:

“. . . today’s housing market looks a lot like the 2019 housing market, which was the strongest housing market in a decade at the time.”

Bottom Line

If recent headlines are generating any concerns, look at a more typical year for perspective. The current market is not a crash or correction. It’s just a turning point toward more typical, pre-pandemic levels. Let’s connect if you have any questions about the New York City or Manhattan real estate market and what it means for you when you buy or sell apartment this year.

Posted in Real Estate
June 14, 2022

Why Rising Mortgage Rates Push Buyers off the Fence

Why Rising Mortgage Rates Push Buyers off the Fence

Why Rising Mortgage Rates Push Buyers off the Fence | MyKCM

If you’re thinking about buying a home, you’ve probably heard mortgage rates are rising and have wondered what that means for you. Since mortgage rates have increased over two percentage points this year, it’s natural to think about how this will impact your homeownership plans.

Today, buyers are reacting in one of two ways: they’re either making the decision to buy now before rates climb higher or they’re waiting it out in hopes rates will fall. Let’s look at some context that can help you understand why so many buyers are jumping off the fence and into action rather than waiting to buy.

A Look Back: How the Current Mortgage Rate Compares to Historical Data

One factor that could help you make your decision to buy now is how today’s mortgage rates compare to historical data. While higher than the average 30-year fixed rate in recent years, the latest rates are still comparatively low when you look at the bigger picture of where rates have been since 1971 (see graph below):

Why Rising Mortgage Rates Push Buyers off the Fence | MyKCM

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First Americanexplains it like this:

“. . . historical context is important. An average 30-year, fixed mortgage rate of 5.5 percent is still well below the historical average of nearly 8 percent.”

If you’re deciding whether to buy now or wait, this is important context to have. Today’s mortgage rate still gives you a window of opportunity to lock in a rate that’s comparatively lower than decades past.

A Look Ahead: What Happens if Rates Climb Further

The buyers who are springing into action now are also motivated to make their move because they know rates have risen steadily this year, and they’re eager to get ahead of any further increases.

Why? When mortgage rates climb, they impact the monthly mortgage payment you’ll have on the home you’re buying. Basically, it’ll likely cost you more to buy a home if you wait. Experts say mortgage rates will rise (although more moderately) in the months ahead. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First Americanexplains:

“. . . ongoing inflationary pressure remains likely to push mortgage rates even higher in the months to come.”

So, if you’re ready and financially able to buy now, it may make more sense to get off the fence and make your purchase sooner rather than later. As Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

With even higher interest rates on the horizon, I don’t see any reason to hold off from purchasing a home right now. If you feel financially secure, you should start looking for a home.”

At the end of the day, there is no perfect advice on when to buy a home. What you should do depends on your goals, your finances, and your personal situation. Use this information with the help of local real estate professionals to make an informed decision on what’s best for you. The Mortgage Reports sums it up best:

“. . . if you’re on the fence about whether to buy now or wait for a better deal, buying sooner rather than later might be wise. That said, home buying is always a personal decision. Whether you should buy in 2022 depends on your financial situation and the local housing market where you live.”

Bottom Line

For many buyers, rising mortgage rates are motivating them to act now and make a purchase before rates rise higher. To decide what move is best for you, let’s connect so you have expert advice on your side  If you have any questions about buying or selling in New York City, call or message me today and I would be happy to answer any questions you might have.

Posted in Real Estate
April 14, 2021

Luxury Manhattan Market Report

Manhattan Residential Listings over $4 Million

Contracts Signed

Week of April 5th - April 11th, 2021

In the Manhattan Luxury Market, which we refer to as $4 Million and above we had Fifty One (51) contracts that were signed last week. That is a total volume of $455 million, an average of $8.9 million and a median price of $8 million.

The top sale of the week went to 151 East 58th Street PH5152W known as the Beacon which was last asking $29.5 million features 24-foot double-height ceiling in the living room, 2,00 square foot master suite, and sick views through about 400 linear feet of 12-foot-high windows. The sale price is not yet known but appears to be roughly a 74% discount from the original asking price of $115 million back in April of 2013.  Billionaire Uncle Steve Cohen (not my uncle) but owner of the Amazing New York Mets is rumored to be the owner.

Now we can contemplate what apartment Francisco Lindor might buy now that he will be in NY for a long time to come.

Lets Go Mets #LGM

Jeff Cohen

Licensed Real Estate Salesperson

NextStopNY Real Estate

March 5, 2021

414 East 52nd Street

Stunning, spacious and sun-filled. This completely renovated over-sized one bedroom apartment has yet to be lived in post renovation. It is nestled in a pre-war building on a quiet 52nd Street cul de sac! The sunny southern exposure faces an internal private garden and brightens this space all afternoon.

Youtube tour: 414 East 52nd Street Apartment 8F

Features include Dryer in the unit (Miele), Working Wood-Burning Fireplace, 3 large closets including a Walk-In Pantry Closet, Central Air-Conditioning. State-of-the art stainless steel appliances – American Range, Dacor convection microwave, Bosch dishwasher and Bosch refrigerator (with bottom freezer). Just to highlight how exquisite the finishes are, the kitchen is even lined with beautiful Xtone counters. Perfect for a Chef and Cooking/Baking Aficionado! In addition, the soaking tub in the bathroom provides a rain shower with hand-held spray and a seamless glass enclosure. Best of all…. electricity is included.

The building provides 24-hour doorman service and personal assistance, mail and package delivery, a laundry room, bike room, optional storage, pretty lobby, and access to the private garden. Close to all transportation, shops, parks and restaurants. Please call for an appointment.

Pets Allowed






Jeff Cohen

NextStopNY Real Estate

1033 Second Ave (at 54th Street) 

New York, NY 10022 

Phone: 917-719-1277


Licensed Real Estate Salesperson



Posted in Real Estate
May 9, 2020

Support Local: Ess-a-Bagel

Start "spreading" the news about this interview. Join me as I sit down with Melanie one of the owners of Ess-a-Bagel in Manhattan. The gift card #giveaway is at the bottom, but more important is the story.

NYC is one of the hardest hit areas by #covid19 and I thought it would be great idea to highlight local businesses in #mymidtowneast who are staying open, safe and feeding our community. When you think of #nyc , you think of bagels. Ess-a-Bagel is one of the most iconic bagel shops and they even ship around the country. Not only do they remain open, but they are committed to helping front line workers and recently initiated a grocery option for the community to get some of those hard to access items.

If you are interested in feeding the front line workers, Melanie recommends donating here:

To find out more about #essabagel and how you can order, follow, and become a fan like me:


To find more about the gift card, go to my instagram at:


April 29, 2020

What to expect from real estate after the pandemic

Think This Is a Housing Crisis? Here are five aspects to consider...

Think This Is a Housing Crisis? Think Again. | MyKCM

There is so much uncertainty caused by the pandemic and the economic pain we are encountering across the country persists. Until the number of listings normalizes, we have access to apartments, can provide access to buyers, and see how historic unemployment factors in, it is difficult to determine what will happen to home values. I am hearing from a lot of clients asking me if the housing market is in trouble. While nobody knows for sure based on these factors, there is a lot of talk about how this market will compare to 2008. For those who were around in 2008, it's understandable that one would ask that question. However, the best real estate decision I ever made was during that time of uncertainty. So, it got me thinking, what is different?

At that time, a lot of us experienced financial hardships, lost homes, and were out of work during that "Great Recession". However, that recession was ignited by a housing and mortgage crisis. Today, we face a completely different challenge: an external health crisis that has caused a pause in much of the economy and a major shutdown of many parts of the United States.

Let’s look at 5 things we know about today’s housing market that were different in 2008. In case you are used to scrolling on Instagram like I am, I have also included a few infographics to support the narrative.

1. Appreciation

When we look at the increase in home prices in the image below, there is a significant difference between the six years prior to the housing crash and the most recent six-year period of time. Leading up to the crash, we had much higher appreciation in this country than we see today. In fact, the highest level of appreciation most recently is below the lowest level we saw leading up to the crash. Prices have been rising lately, but not at the rate they were climbing back when we had runaway appreciation.Think This Is a Housing Crisis? Think Again. | MyKCM

2. Mortgage Credit

The Mortgage Credit Availability Index is a monthly measure by the Mortgage Bankers Association that gauges the level of difficulty to secure a loan. The higher the index, the easier it is to get a loan; the lower the index, the harder. Today we’re nowhere near the levels seen before the housing crash when it was very easy to get approved for a mortgage. After the crash, however, lending standards tightened and have remained that way leading up to today.Think This Is a Housing Crisis? Think Again. | MyKCM

3. Number of Homes for Sale

One of the causes of the housing crash in 2008 was an oversupply of homes for sale. Today, as shown in the next image, we see a much different picture. We don’t have enough homes on the market for the number of people who want to buy them. Across the country, we have less than 6 months of inventory, an undersupply of homes available for interested buyers. Manhattan has experienced an oversupply in recent years mostly driven by New Development, but prior to COVID-19, we were seeing postive signs of activity.Think This Is a Housing Crisis? Think Again. | MyKCM

4. Use of Home Equity

The comparative in this section shows the difference in how people are accessing the equity in their homes today as compared to 2008. In 2008, consumers were extracting equity from their homes (through cash-out refinances) and generally speaking people were utilizing the surplus to fund their lifestyles. Today, we are seeing home owners treating the equity in their homes much more cautiously.Think This Is a Housing Crisis? Think Again. | MyKCM

5. Home Equity Today

For those that like to analyze numbers, today, 53.8% of homes across the country have at least 50% equity. In 2008, homeowners were abandoning their homes when they were "underwater" (meaning owed more than what their homes were worth). With the equity homeowners have now, they’re much less likely to walk away from their homes.Think This Is a Housing Crisis? Think Again. | MyKCM

Bottom Line

The COVID-19 crisis is causing different challenges across the country than the ones we faced in 2008. Back then, we had a housing crisis; today, we face a health crisis. What we know now is that housing is in a much stronger position today than it was in 2008. It is no longer the center of the economic slowdown. Rather, it could be just what helps pull us out of the downturn.

We all know that NYC is completely different from most of the country. If you are interested in seeing detailed information on the how the pandemic will impact the housing market in Manhattan contact me.

Feb. 13, 2020

Alexa says what? $165M?

According to the New York Times, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos purchased the Warner Estate in Beverly Hills from David Geffen for $165 million. The 9.4 acre parcel was designed in the 1930s for Jack Warner, the a force in the entertainment industry and is best known as the former president of Warner Brothers Entertainment. Geffen purchased the residence for $47.5 million in 1990, which was a record for L.A. County at the time.

Bezos’s $165 million purchase, which was not an online order, is a new record for L.A. County and likely for the entire state of California. Alexa, can you say impressive!